Increased Copper Production Needed
The global push towards vehicle electrification is vital for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, a new study reveals significant challenges, highlighting an urgent need for increased Copper production. Copper is a necessary component in electric vehicles (EVs). Hence, meeting electrification goals requires a 55% increase in Copper Mining by 2050. This study has major implications for Africa’s Mining industry and the global Copper supply chain.
By 2050, the world will be setting ambitious targets to electrify the vehicle fleet, leading to a surge in Copper demand. Copper is essential for EV components, including batteries, motors, and wiring. According to the International Energy Forum (IEF), achieving these targets without a substantial increase in Copper production is unlikely.
Current Production vs Future Requirements
Historically, vast amounts of Copper have been mined. However, the IEF study indicates that future demands are unprecedented. With the aim of meeting the 2050 electrification target, the world will need to mine at least 115% more Copper than all Copper mined up to 2018. Thus, it equals to needing a very large increase in new Copper Mining operations.
According to the study led by Dr Lawrence Cathles of Cornell University and Dr Adam Simon of the University of Michigan, highlighting a critical supply-demand gap. Current Copper production rates cannot keep pace with the growing demand for EVs. Although annual mine output is expected to increase from 20.4 million tonnes (Mt) to 37.1 Mt by 2050, this is still insufficient. The net-zero scenario needs at least 194 new mines, or roughly six new mines per year, while the baseline scenario requires one new mine per year (totalling 35 by 2050).
The Future of Copper Mining: Challenges and Resources Feasibility
Creating new Copper mines is full of challenges. Projections assume increased recycling rates, but if recycling remains constant at 2018 levels, the number of new mines needed for baseline demand would rise to 43. Meeting the 100% EV manufacture goal by 2035 is particularly challenging. Historical data revealed that mine production deviations have been around 1Mt per year over 15 years, while the EV manufacturing demand gap is projected to be five times greater and twice as long. IEF report confirms sufficient Copper resources exist to support increased Mining, with around 1.69 billion tonnes of Copper expected to be mined by 2050, representing 26% of the total estimated Copper resource of 6.6 billion tonnes.
The resource could expand significantly if the Mining extends to greater depths or the sea floor. Although developing new mines is a lengthy process, averaging 23 years from resource discovery to operation. To meet electrification demands, a continuous pipeline of at least ten years of prospects with a combined production potential of 8Mt per year is necessary. Given these challenges, hybrid vehicles (HEVs), may offer a more feasible transition path. Transitioning to 100% hybrid vehicle production by 2035 could reduce the strain on Copper Mining and offer a more realistic approach to decarbonization.
Check out our article about Minerals Inside Our Phones.
Africa’s Role and Collaborative Efforts in Global Copper Supply
The study highlights the significant challenge of meeting global vehicle electrification goals due to substantial Copper demand, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that includes increased Copper recycling and a focus on hybrid vehicles. Strategic planning and realistic targets are crucial in order to achieve a sustainable transition to electric vehicles.
Copper is very present in Africa, with Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) holding some of the largest Copper reserves, which play a crucial role in meeting global demand. As the need for Copper increases, these countries could benefit economically. However, they would face some challenges, notably the need for sustainable Mining practices and infrastructure development. As sustainable Mining practices are essential to minimize environmental impact to guarantee community well-being.
Significant investments in infrastructure and technology, including modernizing Mining equipment and improving transportation networks, are mandatory in order to meet rising Copper demand. Governments, Mining companies, and international organizations must collaborate for the sake of creating a supportive policy framework that encourages investment, ensures regulatory compliance, and most importantly promotes sustainable Mining practices; while addressing challenges related to corruption, resource management, and equitable distribution of benefits.
For further information, read the full report here.
